Cross-species viral transmission risk increases with Climate Crisis


Cross-species viral transmission risk increases with Climate Crisis

Reports from the IPCC suggest that during the 21st century the average temperature of the Earth could increase further from current values, by 1.1 to 6.4 ° C more, depending on the climate model used and the gas emission scenario.

hypothesized greenhouse. Most forecasting models predict that warming will be greater in the Arctic and will lead to a reduction in glaciers, permafrost and frozen seas, with possible changes to the biological network and agriculture.

Climate warming will have different effects from region to region and its local influences are however very difficult to predict. As a result of the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the oceans could become more acidic.

The models in the 2000s and thereafter, in addition to a progressive increase in the global average temperature, also predict an increase in the water cycle with an increase in extreme phenomena or droughts and floods. The repercussions of the climate crisis also affect animals and viral transmission risk.

Cross-species viral transmission risk increases with Climate Crisis

The Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk study, published on Nature, explained: "At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2.

However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence.

Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070.

We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times.

Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats accoun t for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 ° C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing.

Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming." Pic by