Rise of temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees in the next decade

Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford climate scientist, revealed in new research that the rise in temperatures will exceed 1.5 of the Paris Agreements over the next decade.

by Lorenzo Ciotti
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Rise of temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees in the next decade

Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford climate scientist, revealed in new research, published January 30th, 2023 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, that the rise in temperatures will exceed 1.5 of the Paris Agreements over the next decade.

He explained: "There is strong evidence of the impact that one degree rise that has already occurred has had on ecosystems, showing that we will continue to experience climate change that will lead to even worse consequences.

We have not adapted to the global warming we have witnessed so far, and we are certainly not ready for what lies ahead." While there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between 2 degrees and 1.5, it actually takes just a fraction of a degree to tenfold the number of ice-free summers for the Arctic, according to the IPCC.

A two-degree increase would also double habitat loss for plants and triple it for insects. Furthermore, it would lead to an even more drastic increase in extreme weather events, with serious social and economic repercussions.

The 2015 Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the IPCC, the emissions curve will need to drop 43 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 to have any chance of hitting the target.

According to a study published on 31 January in the scientific journal The Lancet, over 4% of mortality in the summer months would in fact be attributable to the so-called phenomenon of urban heat islands, due to high carbon dioxide emissions and the lower density of green areas compared to rural areas.

The data analyzed by the group of researchers concern the summer of 2015 and in particular the months of June, July and August: in this period, the cities taken into consideration were on average one and a half degrees more than the surrounding rural areas.

A third of the deaths attributable to the urban heat island phenomenon would be avoidable if the same cities were able to reach 30% tree cover, which would mean, on average, doubling the amount of trees currently present.

Green areas and trees in particular help us in many ways: first of all they provide us with areas of shade, but above all they refresh the surrounding environments thanks to transpiration, through their leaves, they release part of the water they have absorbed through their roots back into the environment. Finally, plants use carbon dioxide to carry out the photosynthesis process.