Climate crisis could affect four vital cereal crops, by 2030

A recent study highlighted the scenarios that could occur for four staple cereal crops around the world

by Lorenzo Ciotti
Climate crisis could affect four vital cereal crops, by 2030
© Alexey Furman / Stringer Getty Images
Cereal fields
Cereal fields© Dan Kitwood / Staff Getty Images

What will be the fate of some basic foods in relation to the unstoppable climate crisis? Grains, especially staple grains?

The scientists involved in the study How does climate change affect potential yields of four staple grain crops worldwide by 2030? published on PloS one, they wondered what the scenarios will be that will characterize four basic cereals (rice, wheat, corn and soy - ed.) with a horizon reaching 2023.

The researchers analyzed: "The potential yields of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans worldwide by 2030 are creatively projected using the ARIMA-TR (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regressed) model in which the yields Actual data from the last two years are used to test the reliability of the projection and the Gray System (GS) model for test validation; In particular, the individual impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, corn and soybean production across the world since 1961 are analyzed using a unary regression model in which global average temperature and land precipitation are independent variables while crop yield depends on them respectively between the average and maximum yields of world rice will increase by 50.6%.

Wheat© Dan Kitwood / Staff

While those of world wheat, world corn and world soybean are expected to increase by 38.0%, decrease by 14.7% and 72.5% respectively in increase. Since 1961, global warming has exerted a negative impact on the world average rice yield below its maximum, a positive effect on the world average wheat yield while a negative impact on its maximum, a positive effect on the world average maize yield below the level maximum. at its maximum, and a positive influence on the global average soybean yield, while negative at its maximum, which could be slightly mitigated by the “Peak Carbon” target.

Fluctuating global rainfall contributes much less to the production of these crops than global warming over the same period. Our results indicate that: to improve the global production of four staple cereal crops by 2030, input priority should be given to rice or wheat in both high- and low-yielding countries, while to maize in high-yielding countries. high yield and soybeans in low yield countries. Villages. These insights highlight some differences from previous studies and provide academia with innovative understanding and policy makers with supporting information on the sustainable production of these four staple cereal crops for global food security in a climate-changing future."